Palladium prices drop to their lowest in more than a year

Palladium looked to suffer a sixth decline in a row on Tuesday, with prices trading under $2,000 an ounce and headed for their lowest finish in over 14 months as global computer chip shortages hurt demand for the metal in car manufacturing.

The recent moves come in stark contrast to the price rise earlier this year for the metal, which is mainly used in catalytic converters in gasoline-powered vehicles to help control emissions.

Both platinum and palladium are getting “hit hard yet again,” said Edward Meir, analyst at ED&F Man Capital Markets, in a Tuesday note. “The ongoing difficulties by automobile producers are surely weighing on both these complexes.”

The auto industry has taken a hit as a global shortage of computer chips leads to a slowdown in manufacturing, which in turn weakens demand for metals used to make cars, including palladium.

Also, in a report issued late last week, the World Platinum Investment Council said that it expects higher costs of palladium, used in vehicle pollution-control devices, to spur a gradual switch by auto makers to using more platinum in gasoline-powered cars and trucks.

On Tuesday, the most-active December palladium contract
PAZ21,
-5.57%

traded at $1,961 an ounce, down $118.80, or 5.7%, for the session. It was on track for a sixth straight decline and poised for the lowest finish since early July 2020.

Palladium had climbed to their highest price on record at $2,981.40 on May 3, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It’s fallen more than 30% from that record.

Chris Blasi, president and founder of Neptune Global, however, told MarketWatch that “the precipitous drop in palladium’s price has been, and continues to be, a leading indicator of a global slowdown in economic activity.”

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of current economic conditions released last Wednesday revealed that U.S. economic growth slowed to a moderate pace in early July through August, as the spread of the coronavirus delta variant led to a pullback in dining out and travel.

The drop in palladium prices is also tied to the “concurrent weak performance in other precious metals, with an industrial use component,” such as silver and platinum, said Blasi.

He expects that palladium may “over shoot to the downside” in a “typical market overreaction” — possibly touching a spot bid price of $1,500 to $1,600 an ounce.

Palladium prices may then see a sharp recovery, “driven by supply/demand imbalances, which appear to be unchanging for the next several years,” said Blasi.

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